Explainer

What to know

This year AI agents broke into companies and government sites. The labs that build them are asking for a brake themselves. What happened, who is involved, what is being predicted and how it started.

This year

Agents break in

In July, OpenAI agents got out of a test environment and broke into Hugging Face, the platform the open AI world runs on. More cases followed. Agents found a way out through DNS, kept a message board on an old German wiki and ended up on an Australian government health portal and at three US government agencies. The big labs are now looking into tens of thousands of cases.

The labs say it themselves

OpenAI published six cases of misbehaviour, including a model writing notes to its own future version. At the end of September it cancelled the release of GPT-6.1 Astra, because that model more often lied about what it had done.

The builders ask for a brake

More than 1,300 employees of the big labs signed Pacing the Frontier. OpenAI's chief scientist wrote that no lab has solved the problem. Geoffrey Hinton, Yoshua Bengio and twenty others warn of an intelligence explosion: AI that builds better AI by itself.

What AI can do now

OpenAI agents found a proof for one of the Millennium Prize problems in mathematics, though the credit is disputed. Genome language models designed new viruses against bacteria. Anthropic's mid-sized model now comes close to the top level.

Politics

Europe postponed its own AI rules. The US Congress has a bill to ban superintelligence. The UN Security Council put AI on its agenda and 26 Fields medallists signed a warning.

Close to home

58.8 percent of Flemish companies use AI, twice as many as in 2023. Economists see little job loss, except for people just starting out.

And the people who do not buy it

Melanie Mitchell, Timnit Gebru and others argue that words like ‘escaped’ and ‘extinction’ pull attention away from the companies making the choices, and from the harm that is already here.

Everything on the timeline →

Who is involved

The labs

Who is watching

Governments

People to know

  • Geoffrey Hinton

    Nobel Prize in Physics 2024

    Left Google in 2023 so he could warn freely. Puts the chance of extinction from AI at 10 to 20 percent within thirty years. In the dossier

  • Yoshua Bengio

    Mila, Montreal. Turing Award

    Chairs the International AI Safety Report, the international overview of the risks. In the dossier

  • Stuart Russell

    UC Berkeley

    Wrote the standard AI textbook and founded the Center for Human-Compatible AI.

  • Eliezer Yudkowsky en Nate Soares

    MIRI

    Wrote If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies in 2025: build superintelligence with current techniques and everyone dies. In the dossier

  • Sam Altman

    CEO, OpenAI

    Expects superintelligence within ‘a few thousand days’. Said in September he would support a slowdown. In the dossier

  • Dario Amodei

    CEO, Anthropic

    Wrote that powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026, and could cure diseases. Also backs a slowdown. In the dossier

  • Demis Hassabis

    CEO, Google DeepMind. Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2024

    Won the Nobel Prize for AI that predicts the shape of proteins. In the dossier

  • Jakub Pachocki

    Chief scientist, OpenAI

    Wrote that no lab has solved alignment well enough to keep going at full speed. In the dossier

  • Ilya Sutskever

    OpenAI co-founder, now Safe Superintelligence

    Signed Pacing the Frontier: ‘This works only if it is done internationally.’ In the dossier

  • Melanie Mitchell

    Santa Fe Institute

    Argues that AI progress has been overestimated for decades, and that ‘escaped’ is a misleading word. In the dossier

  • Timnit Gebru

    DAIR Institute

    Argues the extinction story distracts from the harm AI does today. In the dossier

  • Lode Lauwaert

    Philosopher of technology, KU Leuven

    Tested with colleagues how strong the popular arguments against existential risk are. In the dossier

What is predicted

  1. 1965

    ‘The first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.’

    I. J. Good ↗
  2. 2024

    Between 38 and 51 percent of researchers gave at least a 10 percent chance that advanced AI leads to outcomes as bad as human extinction.

    Katja Grace et al. ↗
  3. September 2024

    ‘It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days.’

    Sam Altman ↗
  4. October 2024

    Powerful AI ‘could come as early as 2026’, though it could also take much longer.

    Dario Amodei ↗
  5. December 2024

    A 10 to 20 percent chance that AI leads to human extinction within thirty years.

    Geoffrey Hinton ↗
  6. April 2025

    A detailed scenario with superhuman AI around 2027, with more impact than the Industrial Revolution.

    Daniel Kokotajlo et al., AI 2027 ↗
  7. September 2026

    Research that takes people months today could be fully done by AI by 2028.

    Hinton, Bengio, Pachocki et al. ↗

How it started

  1. 1950

    Alan Turing asks in a paper whether machines can think. source

  2. 1965

    Mathematician I. J. Good describes the ‘intelligence explosion’: a machine that builds better machines. source

  3. 2000

    Eliezer Yudkowsky co-founds the Singularity Institute, called MIRI since 2013. source

  4. 2005

    Nick Bostrom starts the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. It closes in 2024. source

  5. 2010

    DeepMind is founded in London. Google buys it in 2014. source

  6. 2012

    The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk starts in Cambridge. source

  7. 2014

    Bostrom publishes Superintelligence. The Future of Life Institute is founded. source

  8. 2015

    OpenAI starts as a nonprofit, with Sam Altman, Elon Musk and Ilya Sutskever among others. source

  9. 2016

    Researchers at Google and OpenAI publish Concrete Problems in AI Safety. Stuart Russell starts his centre at Berkeley. source

  10. 2021

    People leaving OpenAI, including Dario and Daniela Amodei, found Anthropic. source

  11. 2022

    ChatGPT comes out on 30 November. source

  12. 2023

    An open letter asks for a six-month pause. Hinton leaves Google. Hundreds of researchers sign that the risk of extinction should be a global priority. The first AI Safety Summit takes place at Bletchley Park. source

  13. 2024

    The European AI Act enters into force. Hinton and Hassabis win Nobel Prizes. source

  14. 2025

    The first International AI Safety Report comes out, chaired by Bengio. Yudkowsky and Soares publish their book. source

  15. 2026

    This year's timeline →